At 92, the world’s oldest head of state, Cameroonian President Paul Biya, faces defections by allies-turned-rivals jockeying to replace him in elections that could end his four-plus decades in power.
Biya, who has led Cameroon with an iron fist since 1982, has had two key allies defect back-to-back as the African country heads for elections in October.
First was employment minister Issa Tchiroma Bakary, who stepped down and announced on June 26 he was running for president for his party, the Cameroon National Salvation Front.
Two days later, minister of state Bello Bouba Maigari, a former prime minister, also jumped in the presidential race.
Neither defection appears to have fazed the veteran leader.
The government released a terse statement announcing Tchiroma had been replaced, without mentioning he had resigned.
Biya’s camp also downplayed the challenge from Maigari, who leads the government-allied National Union for Democracy and Progress and has been close to the president for nearly three decades.
“Nothing new here,” Fame Ndongo, communications chief for the ruling Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (CPDM), wrote in a front-page column Monday in the state newspaper, the Cameroon Tribune.
Biya had “long ago decoded the premonitory signs of these departures, which are part of the classic political game in an advanced liberal democracy”, Ndongo said.
By statute, Biya is automatically the ruling party’s presidential candidate, though he has not yet confirmed he will run.
The nonagenarian’s public appearances have grown rare and rumours of poor health are swirling.
– ‘Rotting in poverty’ –
Tchiroma and Maigari have challenged Biya before.
Both ran against him in the 1992 election.
Tchiroma had just been released from prison, and Maigari was just returning from exile at the time.
But both men, powerful figures from the country’s politically important, traditionally pro-government north, soon fell in line with Biya.
That has drawn criticism from some.
Northern Cameroon’s people “are rotting in poverty”, said Severin Tchokonte, a professor at the region’s University of Garoua.
“Supporting the regime all this time amounts to betraying those people, who have no water, no electricity, no infrastructure to ensure their minimal well-being,” he said.
Tchiroma has sought to distance himself from Biya’s tainted legacy, drawing a line between “yesterday” and “today”.
“Admittedly, we didn’t manage to lift you from poverty yesterday, but today, if we come together… we can do it,” he told a rally in Garoua in June.
Cameroon’s last presidential election, in 2018, was marred by violence.
Only around 53 percent of registered voters took part.
The ruling CPDM has long relied on alliances with potential rivals to keep it in power.
But Cameroon is in dire economic straits, and there are mounting calls for change, especially on social media.
With many of the country’s 28 million people mired in poverty, there could be a mass protest vote at the polls.
– Presidential puppets? –
That may not benefit Tchiroma and Maigari, however.
Both face accusations of acting as Biya puppets to divert votes from more hardline opponents such as Maurice Kamto of the Cameroon Renaissance Movement (CRM) — a charge both men deny.
“Bello and Tchiroma have been with the CPDM a long time. They could be looking to fracture and weaken the opposition to contain the surge of Maurice Kamto and the CRM,” said Tchokonte.
“If the CRM gets votes in the north, that could tip the balance.”
There is a “large, cross-regional” demand for change in Cameroon, said Anicet Ekane, the veteran leader of opposition party Manidem.
“It will be increasingly difficult for (Biya) to count on elites to tell people how to vote and avoid a national movement against the government,” he said.
Biya urged Cameroonians in February to ignore “the sirens of chaos” being sounded by “certain irresponsible individuals”.
“I can assure you my determination to serve you remains intact,” he said last year.
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