Bitcoin could be on track for its “best ever” second half of a year, thanks to growing institutional interest and aggressive treasury accumulation, according to Geoff Kendrick, Head of FX and Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered.
In a note released Wednesday, just hours before Bitcoin surged past $109,000 for the first time in three weeks, Kendrick predicted the flagship cryptocurrency is on its way to breaking previous highs.
“Bitcoin to print new all-time highs in H2,” Kendrick wrote, forecasting that acquisitions in both Q3 and Q4 could each exceed the 245,000 BTC accumulated in Q2. The digital asset previously hit a record $111,814 in May, and Kendrick believes a new high is imminent.
Kendrick also noted that Bitcoin appears to have broken from its traditional post-halving trend of declining prices.
“Which would have led to price declines in September-October 2025,” he wrote, referencing historical patterns following Bitcoin halving events.
Still, he warned that volatility could return in the near term. “We think prices could be choppy in late Q3 and early Q4 amid concerns about this pattern being repeated,” he wrote. “However, we expect prices to resume their uptrend, supported by continued strong ETF and Bitcoin treasury buying.”
He emphasised that current conditions are different from past halving cycles. “Both the BTC treasury company support and ETFs were absent in all the previous halving cycles,” he noted.
Treasury adoption of Bitcoin has accelerated significantly. Companies like MetaPlanet and particularly Strategy have led the charge. Strategy, which pivoted from software to crypto in 2020, now holds more than 597,000 BTC—valued at about $65 billion—making it the largest corporate holder by far.
Currently, 141 publicly traded firms own a combined 849,400 BTC, with a total value exceeding $92 billion, according to data from bitcointreasuries.net.
At last check, Bitcoin was trading at $109,459, up 3.1% over the past 24 hours and 2.2% on the week, according to CoinGecko.
However, not all signals are bullish. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a major outflow of $342 million on Tuesday, ending a 15-day streak of over $4 billion in inflows. Fidelity’s FBTC fund experienced the largest outflow, with $172.7 million, followed by Grayscale’s GBTC at $119.5 million, per data from Farside Investors.
Despite the pullback, the ETFs now manage over $130 billion in assets collectively. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) leads the pack with over $70 billion under management and is now the fastest-growing ETF in the industry’s 32-year history.
Meanwhile, broader crypto markets have brushed off macroeconomic uncertainties, including the ongoing U.S. trade war and political pressure on the Federal Reserve.
At a forum in Portugal, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said interest rate cuts might have already occurred this year if not for President Donald Trump’s trade policies.
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